Abstract
AB030. S030. Defining and predicting early recurrence in 957 patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma
Vincent P. Groot1,2, Georgios Gemenetzis1, Alex B. Blair1, Roberto J. Rivero-Soto1, Jun Yu1, Ammar A. Javed1, Richard A. Burkhart1, Inne H. M. Borel Rinkes2, I. Quintus Molenaar2, John L. Cameron1, Matthew J. Weiss1, Christopher L. Wolfgang1, Jin He1
1Department of Surgery, The Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA;2Department of Surgery, UMC Utrecht Cancer Center, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Background: A clear definition of “early recurrence” after pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) resection is currently lacking. The aim of this study was to establish an evidence-based cut-off to differentiate between early and late recurrence and to compare clinicopathologic risk factors between the two groups.
Methods: Patients undergoing pancreatectomy for PDAC between 2000–2013 were included. Exclusion criteria were neoadjuvant therapy and incomplete follow-up. A minimum P-value approach was used to evaluate the optimal cut-off value of recurrence-free survival to divide the patients into early and late recurrence cohorts based on subsequent prognosis. Potential risk factors for early recurrence were assessed with logistic regression models.
Results: Of 957 included patients, 204 (21.3%) were recurrence-free at last follow-up. The optimal length of recurrence-free survival to distinguish between early (n=388, 51.5%) and late recurrence (n=365, 48.5%) was 12 months (P<0.001). Patients with early recurrence had 1-, and 2-year post-recurrence survival rates of 20% and 6% compared to 45% and 22% for the late recurrence group (both P<0.001). Pre-operative risk factors for early recurrence included a Charlson age-comorbidity index ≥4 (OR 1.65), tumor size >3.0 cm on CT (OR 1.53) and CA 19-9 >210 U/mL (OR 2.30). Post-operative risk factors consisted of poor tumor differentiation grade (OR 1.66), microscopic lymphovascular invasion (OR 1.70), a lymph node ratio >0.2 (OR 2.49) and CA 19-9 >37 U/mL (OR 3.38). Adjuvant chemotherapy (OR 0.28) and chemoradiotherapy (OR 0.29) were associated with a reduced likelihood of early recurrence.
Conclusions: A recurrence-free interval of 12 months is the optimal threshold for differentiating between early and late recurrence, based on subsequent prognosis.
doi: 10.21037/apc.2018.AB030
Cite this article as: Groot VP, Gemenetzis G, Blair AB, Rivero-Soto RJ, Yu J, Javed AA, Burkhart RA, Borel Rinkes IH, Molenaar IQ, Cameron JL, Weiss MJ, Wolfgang CL, He J. Defining and predicting early recurrence in 957 patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Ann Pancreat Cancer 2018;1:AB030. doi: 10.21037/apc.2018.AB030
